Howard N. Fenton, III

"Russia has seized upon the efforts of Georgia to assert its sovereignty over South Ossetia as a pretext for a massive show of force in the South Caucuses. This is clearly an effort to re-establish Russian dominance over these former Soviet republics. Vladimir Putin’s dislike for Georgian President Saakashvili is well-known and these attacks are also viewed by many as an effort to undercut the President’s popularity with the Georgian people and halt Georgia’s move to the west and NATO. Russia is calculating that neither the United States nor Europe are in a position to blunt its attacks in Georgia, nor interfere with its efforts to define is ‘sphere of influence.’ Tensions with Ukraine over the Crimea and Russia’s Black Sea naval facility are also rising as Russia appears to be taking the opportunity to show the West that it has returned from post-Soviet hibernation.”